工商時報【林國賓】

逾6成的希臘民眾周日決定站在總理齊普拉斯這一邊,勇敢向國際債權人的紓困案說「不」,但說得容易,接下來的爛攤子該如何收拾才是挑戰。不管對沒錢的希臘,還是要設法維持歐元區完整性的債權人來說,接下來的路無疑是更窄、更艱難。

公投結果出爐後大批希臘民眾湧上街頭慶祝,這一畫面看在這幾年來不斷出錢又出力的債權人眼裡,想必非常不是滋味,這就好像債務人欠錢不還,面對好聲好氣想辦法幫你理債的債權人,還給了他一巴掌。

媒體大多將公投結果視為齊普拉斯的一大勝利,挾著多數的主流民意,齊普拉斯是可藉此向債權人主張更好的紓困條件,但前提是債權人願不願意談?就算債權人重回談判桌,他們會甘願讓步?

有官員透露,希臘曾提議減債一半,國際債權人擔心若是同意,是否也要對西班牙、葡萄牙等國比照辦理。

面對一再跳票而態度、卻又如此蠻橫的政府與國家,即便是原本主張想盡辦法出手搶救的債權國恐怕也心灰意冷,未來的協商不可能如齊普拉斯承諾的會快速進行,一些大型銀行甚至認為希臘脫歐無可避免,剩下的只是何時的問題。

風險顧問業者歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)歐洲分析部門主管拉曼(Mujtaba Rahman)斷言:「希臘民眾等於是自己簽下了絕命書,目前看來大概只剩法國會幫希臘說情,難敵歐元區財長會議一面倒主戰的立場。」

希臘第一道錢關是7月20日,到時積欠歐洲央行(ECB)的一筆35億歐元貸款必需償付,如果籌不出錢還款,或是得不到展延還款融,那離脫離歐元區也將不遠。

再說,若從債務可持續性的角度來說,除非希臘再獲一次大幅度的債務減記,根本難以償清債務,希臘終究得靠發行具競爭力的貨幣來帶動經濟重返成長,屆時才能翻轉財政體質。

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The Greek, right, and the European flags wave under the ancient Acropolis hill in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks lined up at polling stations and ATMs alike Sunday as the country voted on its ... 較多The Greek, right, and the European flags wave under the ancient Acropolis hill in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks lined up at polling stations and ATMs alike Sunday as the country voted on its financial future, choosing in a referendum whether to accept creditors' demands for more austerity in return for rescue loans or defiantly reject the deal. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek) 較少











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Associated Press | 拍攝者 Petr David Josek





2015年7月6日週一 台北標準時間上午1時55分





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